The Bitcoin Dominance Level You MUST Watch
Why Bitcoin Dominance Still Controls the Entire Crypto Cycle and What It Means for Your Portfolio
Every crypto cycle has that one moment where everything changes.
The point where Bitcoin takes control, altcoins bleed out, and the next move becomes painfully obvious if you’re paying attention.
Most people don’t.
They chase narratives, hype, and green candles… while ignoring the one metric that has dictated every bull market since the dawn of crypto
Bitcoin Dominance.
Today I’m breaking down the exact dominance level that decides the entire cycle, why altcoins have struggled for over a year, and the simple framework that keeps you on the right side of the market.
Why This Cycle Is Different But Still Rhymes
We don’t need to obsess over headlines, ETF chatter, or whatever Donald Trump had for breakfast.
This cycle comes down to three simple truths:
- Bitcoin is still taking liquidity.
Every surge in BTC dominance drains liquidity from altcoins. - Altcoins are being repriced, not undervalued.
Their bleed is structural, not emotional. - Stablecoin dominance keeps rejecting risk-on conditions.
Until it breaks lower, altseason simply cannot form.
This is why we’ve had fake-out after fake-out.
This is why altcoins have bled even while Bitcoin pushed to new highs.
And this is why most investors are confused, frustrated, and stuck on the wrong side of the market.
The Cycle Principle: Bitcoin First, Everything Else Later
Every major bull market begins with the same pattern:
1. Bitcoin takes liquidity → Dominance rises → Risk-off for altcoins
This is where we are right now.
2. Dominance eventually tops → Market rotates → Altcoins get their run
This is what everyone is waiting for.
It’s not magic.
It’s not a secret formula.
It’s simply how liquidity flows through a maturing asset class.
Right now, Bitcoin dominance has been on the longest sustained incline in its history.
Most people completely missed that signal.
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The Key Level: 60% Dominance
The level that matters most the level that decides whether altcoins survive or get completely flushed is 60% dominance.
On the monthly chart, this level is everything.
On the 3-day chart, we’ve rejected it multiple times.
There are three potential scenarios here:
Scenario 1 — Base Case (Mild Correction)
Dominance pulls back to 55–52%, giving altcoins a temporary relief bounce.
Not a full altseason. Not a 10x festival.
Just relief.
Scenario 2 — Bull Case for Altcoins (ABC Correction)
A deeper dominance correction opens the door for a more meaningful altcoin run.
Still not mania, but healthier upside across the board.
Scenario 3 — Dominance Breaks Higher (60–65%+)
This is the nightmare scenario for altcoins.
It means Bitcoin drains the market even further.
It often happens during macro stress: liquidity tightening, dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty, etc.
Historically?
Money flows to the king before it flows anywhere else.
Ethereum Still Holds the Keys
You’ve heard me say it before:
Ethereum is the key to any real altseason.
When ETH/BTC moves up, the entire altcoin market breathes.
Right now, ETH/BTC has:
- formed an impulse
- pulled back
- possibly bottomed
- but not confirmed a breakout
Every time Bitcoin made a run to its all-time high, ETH/BTC dropped.
That alone tells you how liquidity has behaved this cycle.
Stablecoin Dominance | The Most Ignored Chart in Crypto
This is the chart nobody looks at… but everybody should.
Stablecoin dominance tells you whether money is entering risk assets or hiding in stablecoins.
- High = fear / risk-off / buy Bitcoin
- Low = confidence / risk-on / altseason
We tried to break the lower three times:
Failure, failure, failure.
We never reached the classic 5% “altseason trigger” zone.
Which means the money simply wasn’t rotating.
Now?
We’re back at range highs.
Too early to say whether it rejects or breaks out.
Until this chart confirms risk-on, altseason is a fantasy.
Macro Still Matters | Even in Crypto
Liquidity is everything.
Between:
- interest rate volatility
- FOMC uncertainty
- dollar strength
- AI-driven liquidity drains
- global risk appetite swings
- ETF inflow/outflow flips
…markets are jittery.
Bitcoin acts like digital gold in these conditions:
Slow, strong, safe.
Altcoins act like leverage.
They get smoked.
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What Happens Next?
Two paths make the most sense:
Path A — Dominance drops → Altcoins bounce
Ethereum could lead
Solana, XRP, and others follow
Sentiment improves
Still not a mania cycle but real relief
Path B — Dominance breaks higher → Bitcoin wins, altcoins nuke
Safer play is holding BTC
Altcoins get repriced even further
Pain continues
People panic
Then, eventually, any, an opportunity appears
Right now, the market has no clear direction.
This is the toughest environment I’ve covered as a creator.
The trend has been messy, inconsistent, and built on weak conviction.
How I’m Positioning (Full Transparency)
Inside Patreon, I’ve been open:
- I sold a chunk of Bitcoin earlier (around 25%)
- I’m hedged and waiting for lower entries
- I still hold 75% of my long-term BTC stack
- I want the market to go higher — but I’m prepared if it doesn’t
No hopium.
Just structure and patience.
I’m fully aware dominance may still push higher.
I’m fully aware altcoins may still bleed.
But when the structure confirms a direction, I’ll move aggressively up or down.
