My Bitcoin Buy Plan: What I’ll Do If We Pump or Dump

Everyone keeps asking the same question:

“Is Bitcoin going to a new all-time high, or is the cycle over?”

My honest answer: I’m prepared for both.

• What I’ll do if Bitcoin pumps
• What I’ll do if Bitcoin dumps
• And why I’m okay either way

No hype. No magic levels. Just structure, probability, and a bit of common sense.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It’s my personal plan and opinion based on how I manage my own portfolio.

Where Bitcoin Is Right Now (In My View)

Structurally, Bitcoin is in a weird spot.

• We’ve already had roughly a 30% correction from the highs
• Price is still under key weekly resistance
• The bounce so far has been weak

On paper, the trend is technically still up but only just. Momentum is ugly. Liquidity looks thin. And many people are trying to convince themselves that this is just a minor dip in an unstoppable mega-cycle.

I don’t see it that way.

Based on the structure I’m watching and how previous cycles have behaved, I’d personally put the probability at around 70–80% that this cycle is done in terms of major upside.

Could we make a new high? Sure.
Is it my base case? No.

The Upside Case: What I’ll Do If Bitcoin Pumps

Let’s talk about the bullish scenario first.

Using Fibonacci and structure, there are some logical bounce zones above the current price. In my view, zones like the high 90Ks (think roughly 91K–98K) would make sense as reaction areas after a big dump.

Big moves usually get significant reactions.

If we do push into that kind of region and show strength, my plan is simple:

• I will sell more Bitcoin on strength.

I’ve already taken profit three times between roughly $111K and $120K earlier in the year. That was the plan I had for a long time:

“If Bitcoin hits between 110K and 150K, I’ll gradually start bugging out.”

I stuck to it because:

• I bought much lower
• My position size was large
• My priority is protecting capital, not being a hero at the top

If we somehow squeeze higher from here, I’ll follow the same logic:

• No FOMO
• No “this time is different” nonsense
• Just selling a bit more into strength and de-risking

If we break out, consolidate at higher levels, and prove me wrong in the long term? Fine. I’ll still have exposure. I’m not all-out, I’m just managing risk.

The Downside Case: What I’ll Do If Bitcoin Dumps

Now, for the more likely scenario in my view: we go lower.

Even if we get a bounce first, the structure right now could easily turn into a bigger swing top that sends the price down towards:

• The previous all-time high area
• Deeper Fibonacci retracement zones
• Potentially the $40K–$50K region and still be “normal” by Bitcoin standards

People forget this:

• Previous cycles saw 84% and 74% corrections
• A 45–60% correction from the top is not extreme for Bitcoin

So what’s my plan if we start breaking down?

1. Keep buying with my DCA challenge

I’m already:

• DCA’ing £60 per week into Bitcoin
• Increasing that amount as the price gets lower
• Ready to throw more size at it if we hit significant levels, I like

The lower it goes (within reason, and assuming the thesis is intact), the more interested I am in:

• Increasing my unit count
• Positioning for the next cycle, not this one

I fully believe we will eventually go higher than our previous high time horizon. That’s my personal belief, not a guarantee.

You can follow the DCA challenge on my Patreon.

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2. Scale in harder at key levels

If price reaches:

• Previous cycle highs
• Deep structural support zones
• Confluent Fibonacci + structure levels

…I won’t be crying about the dump. I’ll be working on my plan:

• Add more
• Size up intelligently
• Keep long-term conviction while respecting risk

Why Liquidity and Dominance Matter More Than Narratives

This cycle has exposed a few painful realities:

• No fresh capital = no sustainable rally
• ETF flows matter
• Stablecoin dominance and Bitcoin dominance tell the truth

We’ve seen:

• Outflows from major Bitcoin ETFs
• Stablecoin dominance rising (risk-off signals)
• Bitcoin dominance is acting strangely at key points

Meanwhile, Total3 (the altcoin market without BTC and ETH) has basically failed to follow previous cycles:

• More coins
• More emissions
• Less real buying
• No proper altseason follow-through

I said a long time ago that I didn’t think we’d get a huge altseason like past cycles. A lot of people hated that and unfollowed me. But I’d rather be boring and mostly right than hype-driven and completely wrecked.

Why I’m Still Bitcoin-First

If I’d repeated my 2020 altcoin strategy this cycle (Dot, ADA, ZIL, VET at the floor etc.) I’d be in serious trouble.

Instead, I:

• Kept Bitcoin as the core of my portfolio
• Used alts more selectively
• Took profit aggressively when things got silly
• Didn’t rely on a “massive altseason” to save me

The altcoin market this cycle has been:

• Over-inflated with emissions
• Starved of new liquidity
• Constantly sold into by teams and early investors

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is still:

• Highly liquid
• Institutionally adopted
• Structurally capable of big cycles when conditions allow

That’s why my buy plan is Bitcoin-centric, not alt-centric.

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My Rules Going Forward

To summarise my plan in plain English:

If Bitcoin pumps:

• I take more profit into strength
• I protect capital
• I ignore hype and stick to my pre-planned zones

If Bitcoin dumps:

• I buy more at key levels
• I increase my DCA as we go lower
• I treat it as a reset, not a disaster

At all times:

• I don’t chase tops
• I don’t rely on altcoins to save the day
• I focus on survival and compounding, not ego

Bitcoin almost never moves in straight lines.
The biggest rallies often come from the ugliest resets.

I’m not trying to nail every weekly move; I’m trying to be on the right side of the cycle with a plan that works whether we pump or dump.